The corn crop this year will be underwhelming due to large areas of drought and fewer acres planted. Some may disagree, especially those of you who have family in the other “I” states. Let me explain. In 2021 we planted 92.7 million acres of corn and this year we only planted 89.9 million acres, so take ~3 million acres off the top. Then consider that the peripheral states (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado) are producing near nothing due to drought, and it will be very hard to keep up with last year, even if the “I” states have a bumper crop.

What little corn is produced in the peripheral states will be light test weight with shallow kernel depth. Even the irrigated stuff will struggle with the kind of heat they are getting. I understand these states don’t mean much in terms of yield to begin with, but they do help bring up the totals—especially Kansas and Colorado. Furthermore, the drought is still spreading and could soon bleed into the “I” states, but as of now, it’s looking like a good year for them. We will know a lot more in two weeks.

The soybeans from Texas all the way up to Missouri look poor. Once you get into Missouri and farther north, they look great. Acreage stayed constant this year.

Hay remains extremely high and bales per acre are very low this year due to drought. The sudan grass has a potential for high nitrates due to drought stress, so keep that in mind if you’re buying that particular type of hay out of the south central US.

Cattle remain very high across the board. You may see some fluctuation in prices and they may even go down in the coming days, but I suspect this to be short lived for several reasons.

Where am I going with all of this? Well all the high prices I’ve discussed will be passed down to the consumer. The hay cost, high grain cost, high cattle price, and high fuel cost used to bring the finished product to the plate will all be passed down. If you’ve been to the grocery store recently, you know how beef, and meat in general, has risen astronomically. If you haven’t looked at steak recently, take a peek: your jaw will drop.

Here’s the issue. The cattle herd is currently being dumped on the market because prices are good and feed cost is high. It will take years to build the herd back up, so we could see high prices for an extended period of time. Plan accordingly.

One saving grace is that Russia and Ukraine made a deal that should allow global grain exports from Ukraine. But it is a war zone and things can go south fast...don’t count your chickens, as they say.

‘Til next time, friends.

John Fitzgerald raises cattle and poultry outside Tulsa.